भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था के लिए साल 2013 कुछ खास अच्छा नहीं रहा। आय में स्थिरता, रुपए के मूल्य में गिरावट, आसमान छूती मुद्रास्फीति की दर और ब्याज की ऊंची दर ने लोगों को अपने खर्चों तथा निवेश पर लगाम लगाने को विवश कर दिया। इसका असर सीधे-सीधे रियल एस्टेट सैक्टर पर भी हुआ। इस साल त्यौहारों के मौसम में भी अपेक्षा अनुरूप तेजी देखने को नहीं मिली।
सरकार द्वारा लागू किए जा रहे रियल एस्टेट रैगुलेशन बिल को लेकर भी इंडस्ट्री में नाखुशी का माहौल बना हुआ है। वैसे इस सबके बावजूद आवासीय सम्पत्ति के दामों में लगातार इजाफा होता रहा जबकि रुपए के मूल्य में अवमूल्यन इसकी विक्रय शक्ति को क्षीण करता रहा। अब नया साल अपने साथ नई अपेक्षाएं लेकर आ रहा है। आइए आपको बताएं कि विशेषज्ञों की राय में साल 2014 में कैसा रहेगा रियल एस्टेट का रुख?
रीडिवैल्पमैंट गतिविधियों में इजाफा होगा
शहरीकरण के कारण घट रही भूमि की वजह से रियल एस्टेट सैक्टर का काफी जोर रीडिवैल्पमैंट पर भी केंद्रित रहेगा। इसकी एक वजह यह भी है कि नए भूमि अधिग्रहण कानून के मद्देनजर अब डिवैल्पर्स के लिए भूमि अधिग्रहण पहले की तुलना में कहीं अधिक कठिन हो जाएगा। ऐसे में भारतीय शहरों में रिडिवैल्पमैंट की दिशा में डिवैल्पर्स के लिए सम्भावनाओं की कोई कमी नहीं है।
मांग तथा आपूर्ति में तालमेल बैठाने का समय
जहां भारत में हो रहा शहरीकरण दुनिया भर के निवेशकों को मुनाफा कमाने का सुनहरा अवसर प्रतीत हो रहा है वहीं इसकी वजह से बढ़ रही जरूरतों को पूरा करना भी एक बड़ी चुनौती साबित हो रही है।
वर्तमान में बाजार चौकस है और इसकी ऐसी भावनाएं 2014 की पहली छमाही तक जारी रहने की अपेक्षा है। हालांकि साल के दूसरे हिस्से में बिक्री में निरंतर इजाफा होगा तथा आवासीय रियल एस्टेट पूंजी में मूल्य वृद्धि साल भर 10 से 12 फीसदी की दर से हो सकती है।
किफायती आवास देंगे 2014 में विकास को गति
एक विकसित होती अर्थव्यवस्था में सम्भावनाओं की कोई कमी नहीं होती और समय आ चुका है कि भारतीय रियल एस्टेट इंडस्ट्री इंतजार में बैठे मौकों की पहचान कर सके। अब तक भारत में करीब 2 करोड़ आवासों की कमी है और इसमें से 95 फीसदी कमी आर्थिक रूप से कमजोर तथा निम्न आय वर्ग के लिए आवासों की है। सरकारी जानकारी के अनुसार आर्थिक रूप से कमजोर वर्ग के आवास 4 से 10 लाख रुपए के होने चाहिएं।
इसका अर्थ है कि किफायती आवासीय परियोजनाओं को हमारे शहरों के ऐसे पनगरों का रुख करना होगा जहां इस मूल्य के आवास उपलब्ध करवाना सम्भव हो। ऐसी परियोजनाओं के लिए सरकार की ओर से शुल्क तथा करों में विभिन्न प्रकार की छूट हासिल करने की कोशिश भी की जानी चाहिए।
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Having an experience of over a decade in the construction industry, Paras Buildtech has made a name for itself in residential, retail and commercial markets. Standing forPerseverance Accuracy Result-oriented Adaptable Social Responsibility, the group has made its presence felt in areas such as Gurgaon, Noida and Zirakpur and Mohali in Punjab. The MD of the group, Harindar Nagar talks to Magicbricks.com’s Shradha Goyal about his opinions about the market performance in 2013 and expresses his anticipations for 2014. Here are the excerpts –
What are your expectations from the Noida real estate market in the year 2014?
Noida and Greater Noida will continue to be one of the prime property locations in 2014. The number of infrastructure projects lined up by the Uttar Pradesh government and NCR Planning Board, including extension of Metro lines, makes these locations favourable for both end-users and investors. Among the stretches, Noida Expressway continues to be one of the finest road projects in the country, attracting a large chunk of investment for real estate development.
Which areas are expected to see maximum development in 2014? Why?
Among the specific areas in Noida, few sectors on Noida Expressway such as 137, 168, Greater Noida West (formerly known as Noida Extension) and areas on Yamuna Expressway falling under Greater Noida are expected to see maximum real estate development and deliveries in 2014.
Where are your projects located and why did you choose these locations?
Our project Paras Tierea is located in Noida sector-137 and other project Paras Seasons is located in Noida sector-168. Both the projects are strategically located with carefully designed layout. We are all set to start giving possession very soon.
Which locations in the city witnessed maximum launches in year 2013? Why?
Greater Noida West, Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway witnessed the maximum number of projects launches in 2013 as there was easy availability of land. Moreover, the government has chalked out development plans for these areas. Moreover to improve the basic infrastructure along the fast developing Noida – Yamuna Expressway, there are plans for a new 20 km road network for better connectivity.
What was the volume of sales and stock in the year 2013 vis-à-vis the last year?
2013 saw slower recovery of properties due to slowdown in economy, high interest rates and high inflation rates severely denting the savings of people. With new Reserve Bank of India’s policy on repo rate, we are looking forward for more stable market in 2014.
What will be the impact of the upcoming general elections on the real estate sector in Noida?
There are two factors that impact the real estate market of any particular area in country – local and national. Locally speaking, since the state government will remain the same before and after the general elections, so their policies, in all likelihood, will remain the same. However, for the national factors, such as interest rates, Real Estate Regulatory Bill, Land Acquisition Act etc, we expect some concrete steps from the next elected central government. The outcome of these steps will determine the direction of the real estate sector.
What are the developments expected in 2014?
We expect the concerned authorities and governments to act swiftly on the implementation part of infrastructure projects such as Noida City Centre – Noida Extension line and Greater Noida – Agra metro project.
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With over 24 years of experience in the real estate business, Supertech Limited has already delivered more than 33 million sq ft of residential and commercial entities. In addition to the metro cities, such as Noida, Greater Noida, Gurgaon, Ghaziabad and Bangalore, the developer also has a strong presence in smaller cities such as Meerut, Moradabad, Haridwar and Rudrapur. Currently, Supertech has over 75 million sq ft under construction. In conversation with Magicbricks.com’s Nikunj Joshi, R K Arora, chairman & managing director of Supertech Limited said that owing to infrastructure upgrades announced by Uttar Pradesh government, Noida realty market will continue to grow in 2014.
What are your expectations from the Noida’s real estate market in the year 2014?
Noida has experienced a period of unprecedented growth over the last few years, which is expected to continue in future also. It has emerged as a well-developed micro market having substantial office and retail space, with commercial activity deepening in its various sectors. Rapid commercial development has led to a spillover of housing growth in and around the region. Also, benefitting from metro extensions, expressways, wider highways and release of land parcels, Noida promises to be a great residential destination in the coming year.
Which areas are expected to see maximum real estate development in 2014? Why?
There has been a lot of development across various sectors in Noida, witnessing healthy absorption trends. Yamuna Expressway is becoming a hub for the real estate market. The projects in the area have received overwhelming response and the fact that the land prices are still low as compared to Noida and Greater Noida makes it a perfect location for investment. Greater Noida West will also be in the limelight for progressive growth of residential and commercial hubs. Great infrastructure, good road network and metro connectivity are the prime reasons that have enticed the buyers and investors to this area.
What will be the impact of the upcoming general elections on the real estate sector in Noida?
Certainly, there will be a temporary setback as the industry will face labour shortage, putting more stress on the developers as well as buyers. After the recent elections in four states, the sales have started improving. We are hopeful that the same will repeat in the forthcoming general elections also and once a new government is formed, the market is expected to improve significantly.
Which locations in the city witnessed maximum launches in year 2013? Why?
Owing to the presence of abundant land parcels and competitive affordability, project launches were concentrated in Greater Noida West and Yamuna Expressway in comparison to prime locations of Noida where land is scarce and costly.
Any infrastructural development that had a positive impact on the real estate sector in the city in 2013?
Many infrastructural developments took place during the year but the biggest developmental kick was the announcement of 12 projects worth Rs 3,337 crore by Uttar Pradesh government to develop infrastructure across the state. The projects encompass Noida, Greater Noida and the Yamuna Expressway. Also the proposal of a new metro rail network between Noida and Greater Noida will further boost the area’s realty market.
Did you launch any new projects in 2013? If yes, where? Have you given possession of any of your projects in 2013?
While we launched residential projects Araville and 48 Canvas in Gurgaon, Albaria and King Towers in Greater Noida (West), Golf Village, Disney Inspired Fable Castle in Yamuna Expressway and River Crest in SIDCUL Rudrapur during the year, we gave possession in Supertech Livingston-Ghaziabad, 34 Pavilion – Noida, Palm Greens/Meerut Sports City – Meerut and Czar Suites – Greater Noida.
What includes your wish list for the real estate sector in 2014?
Government agencies should settle the issue of farmers in Noida to ensure smooth implementation of projects; Real estate should be given the status of ‘infrastructure’ by Central Government to avail funds from authorised sources; Clarity on policies concerning special economic zones, land acquisitions and certain taxes and single window clearance to fasten the approval process.
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If you get to choose between buying a beach house in Florida and an apartment in Gurgaon, what would you prefer? While the great American dream may seem like obvious choice to many, the dollar-rich expatriates think other way around.
The reasons are quite simple – higher rate of appreciation, better periodical returns on investment and a consistently-weak rupee. No wonder, the non-resident Indians (NRIs) are preferring to invest in Gurgaon over international destinations. On one hand, most international property markets are still struggling to recover from the impact of recession, on the other Gurgaon has managed to grow consistently over the last decade.
“We were lucky to have invested in a flat in Orchid Petals back in 2003. The property that we had brought for Rs 49 lakh is now worth Rs 1.8 crore. All the property we had brought in the USA has gone through devaluation. If we were to sell anything today, we will not even be able to our original investment back,” said Malay Mondal, an IT professional who works with Apple Inc in Chicago.
Property agents and consultants say calls from NRI clients have shot up again ever since the fall in the value of rupee. “We get three to four genuine calls from Indians living abroad who want to invest in Gurgaon’s upcoming projects every week. We also get calls from those who want to buy apartments to shift back home,” said Ajay Midha of Ray White, a global property management company which has recently set-up shop in Gurgaon.
The advantage of weak rupee, however, is not there for short-term investors. “Even if NRIs buy more property here now, they would have to wait to sell them till the recovery of rupee,” said, Avinash Piplani, a property agent.
The leading property dealers in the city have special teams dedicated to NRI investors.
“For us, it’s almost like managing an investor-portfolio. We provide our clients end-to-end services. It’s not just about selling a property, but also about maintenance, getting tenants and resale. Most of the NRIs showing interest in the Gurgaon properties are living in USA and Australia.
With infrastructure upgrades such as widening of NH-24 and the upcoming metro, the linkages between Delhi, Ghaziabad and Noida are expected to improve leading to real estate growth in these areas.
Infrastructure is the basic physical and organisational formation that is essential to set up a developed and inhabitable society. It is the set of interconnected structures that provide a framework for urban civilisation that helps facilitate smooth functioning of the economy. It comprises of well crafted network of roads, bridges, flyovers and foot-over-bridges (FOB), water supply, sewer system, electrical grid and telecommunication, which has now become synonymous with NH-24.
Infrastructure development at NH-24 has emerged as a quintessential example of modern day, with smart connectivity, wide communication network and growing IT/ITeS for employment, that suits the needs of the urban society. With the advent of authorities such as Ghaziabad Development Authority (GDA), Nodia Authority, NHAI has possibly made connectivity, flyovers and FOB available to a substantial population that seeks homes around Ghaziabad, Noida and Greater Noida. One of the most positive developments along NH-24 has been the plan to widen the 21-km stretch from UP Gate to Dasna, into an eight lane corridor.
Proposed Metro connectivity is another major factor that has the potential of changing the face of infrastructure. It will not just help commuters to travel but also resolve the problem of congestion on roads because of traffic. Once the plan gets a green signal, the metro line will further be connected to the Indira Gandhi International Airport, which will furthermore appreciate the value of property in and around the area.
The proximity to the established residential and industrial corridors of Noida and Ghaziabad and accessibility to Delhi have been major factors that led to real estate developers showing interest here. Such advancement in infrastructure alone has led many developers to come up with a host of residential projects. Thus, there has been a surge in the project launches. From affordable to luxury, areas such as Ghaziabad, Noida, Greater Noida and Greater Noida West have projects to suit varied categories.
With improving connectivity and communication between Delhi, Ghaziabad and Noida, the real estate along the Highway and Expressway has become the latest fad across the region. Since the area has witnessed a number of budding IT, ITeS and other industries providing job opportunities for professionals, these areas have caught the attention of the young work force and entrepreneurs who have to travel far and wide for work. Thus, infrastructure and the improved links between diverse regions are of prime importance for any society to be a livable society.
Locations such as Noida, Greater Noida, Expressway and Delhi NCR, have carved a niche for themselves as locations offering luxury homes above Rs 5 crores. However, do these properties have the scope for appreciation from the investment point of view? “Luxury and ultra-luxury projects yield much higher returns than projects geared towards the affordable and mid-income segments, the luxury segment in India is moving at a pace of 35 per cent per year.”
Are developers also focusing on this segment of housing? “Ultra-luxury projects have a tendency to garner extremely good presale volumes and therefore, their developers are generally able to secure significant fund flows to capitalise on the completion of their projects. While it is true that the input costs for luxury housing are high, the developer stands to benefit from the increased visibility of his brand among highly affluent, top-end clients.”
Offering state-of-the-art amenities such as double height living rooms, private pools and gymnasiums, these homes attract the island city’s well-heeled professionals and businessmen. These homebuyers are willing to pay a high price for luxurious apartments or penthouses, located in the most affluent locations in Noida. In most cases though, the major advantage of paying such a high premium is the freedom that the homebuyers get to customize their homes according to their choices and requirements.
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“The high price tag for luxury homes is justified through facilities such as customization of interiors, wall finishes, flooring, bathroom fittings and concierge services. While there is a standard design of apartments, nearly 80 per cent of the clientele, opts for customization and does not mind paying an added amount for it.”
Of the top eight cities, the National Capital Region (NCR) saw the least number of units being launced, which stood at 38,000 this calendar year. The decline, when compared on an all-India basis was 33 per cent year-on-year.
The mid-segment, in the NCR registered the highest number of units launched at approximately 26,000, followed by the affordable segment which saw launches of approximately 25,000 units. Viewed on a segment-wise basis, both categories saw substantially reduced numbers with the affordable segment slipping by 29 per cent and the mid-segment by 37 per cent over the previous year.
There were no launches in the luxury segment. Also all the launches were divided between Noida and Gurgaon with Delhi not witnessing any new housing unit launches this calendar year.
Following the trend in 2012, more than 90 per cent of the new launches in 2013 were in the affordable and mid segment. While the first half of calendar 2013 saw launches primarily in the affordable and mid segment with marginal (2 per cent) contribution from the high-end segment, the second half on the other hand witnessed 18 per cent of the total launches in high-end segment.
In the current economic scenario both buyers and developers are taking a cautious approach not only towards residential real estate but across all asset classes of real estate. However, given that most aspects of development such as construction cost, development cost, cost of land, time taken for approval and cost of debt all have been on an upward tangent developers have not been able to lower costs.
Over the past year Delhi locations have registered a decline in capital values while Gurgaon and Noida witnessed appreciation due to relatively lower ticket size and new project launches which offered construction linked plans as opposed to ready properties in Delhi locations. The high-end segment in NCR markets of south west, south east and luxury category in Gurgaon all saw a decline in capital values to the tune of 5 7 per cent over the last year mostly on account of achieving already high values which in the current market scenario looked unsustainable.
Due to pile of inventory and cautious buyer sentiments prevailing in the market amidst sluggish sales, the rental and capital values for high-end properties in Gurgaon saw a quarter-on-quarter decline by 3-12 per cent in calendar 2013 over the last quarter. The city saw reduction in investor activity with most enquiries generated by end users due to high gestation period of return and price points.
Demand & Supply
The total estimated demand for housing in top eight cities of India is pegged at 2.9 million square feet of which NCR is expected to generate the highest demand of 7,70,000 units mostly for mid-range and high-end segments in the period of 2013-2017. In the same time frame, the expected cumulative supply is expected to be around 6,00,000 — the demand- supply gap is expected to be approximately 22 per cent over the period. Some of this projected demand in the 2013-14 is expected to be met through the unsold inventory currently existing in the suburban and peripheral locations.
The gap between fresh demand and supply is expected to see an incremental expansion as supply will fall short on account of economic, regulatory and political scenario. However, some of the demand in the next couple of years can be met through the existing vacant stock.
In addition to the fresh supply, The New Delhi Master Plan 2020 is expected to unlock 66,000 hectares of land within New Delhi which is expected to largely cater to the residential sector. Thus new micro markets for residential development are expected to come up, it is yet to be seen in what proportion and configurations will these units will be created. While demand for housing units will grow proportionate to the rise in population, supply is expected to be less aggressive in the short to medium term. New regulations like the Land Acquisition Act and the real estate regulatory bill which are expected to come into force in the next few quarters will affect supply positively.
Real estate developers and property consultants have hailed Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) decision to not raise the key policy rates, saying that the bold move by the apex bank would infuse positive sentiments in the property market.
RBI surprised the markets by leaving key policy rates unchanged, notwithstanding persistent high inflationary pressure. Developers hoped that RBI would soon be able to cut policy rates as inflation is expected to ease.
Commenting on the policy, DLF Group Executive Director Rajeev Talwar said: “It’s a welcome step. This is the first sign of recovery. If government can release food stocks to contain food-based inflation then possibly in coming time RBI may be able to take more steps for recovery of the economy.
“RBI governor has taken a bold step by keeping the rates flat,” he said.
Jones Lang LaSalle India Chairman and Country Head, Anuj Puri, termed RBI’s decision as good news for the realty sector at the end of the year.
“It is positive for the real estate sector as there was anticipation of increase in the interest rates, which would have been damaging for the sentiments of buyers,” Puri added.
Parsvnath Developers Chairman Pradeep Jain said the RBI has “acted wisely” by keeping the key rates unchanged.
“Though there was pressure to raise the rates due to the recent rise in WPI inflation , still the apex bank managed to handle it and held the rates at 7.75 per cent. This will give a positive signal in the market.”
Jain said he expected RBI to cut the key rates if inflation number comes down.
CREDAI-NCR President Anil Sharma said the RBI has “sweetly surprised” both the experts and industry players with its bold decision.
“We, at CREDAI-NCR, could not have asked for more given the high retail inflation of more than 11 per cent. The bold move by the RBI has infused positive sentiments in not only real estate sector but also other sectors of economy,” Sharma, who is CMD of Amrapali Group, said.
The consistent efforts of the RBI have already stabilised rupee against dollar, besides providing short term liquidity support to push growth simultaneously, he added.
“Experts are already expecting inflation to ease following arrival of winter crop in the wake of normal monsoon. Though the real estate developers’ community will have to wait little longer to see interest rates dipping, but given the right intentions of the RBI, we are confident of flawless run of growth thereafter,” Sharma said.
SARE Homes Executive Director David Walker welcomed the RBI’s step and hoped that the incoming data in the next months would support a moderation in the rate of inflation which could then lead to lower interest rates.
MUMBAI: Welcoming the 0.25 per cent rate cut by two of the biggest home loan financiers SBIBSE 1.24 % and HDFC, realty sector participants today said the move will help revive interest in the gloomy market.
“This is a positive move to boost property sales and spur industry growth. Home buyers who were earlier waiting for rates to come down will now certainly look at buying their dream homes,” industry body Confederation of Real Estate Developers Association of India (Credai) Chairman ..
The home loan rate cuts from certain banks have occurred after nearly a year, and will augur well for investment sentiments in the market,” property consultant CBRE South Asia’s Chairman and Managing Director Anshuman Magazine said.
It may be noted that the residential sector had suffered a major set back due to increasing home loan rates, which had forced buyers to postpone their home buying decision.
Magazine also welcomed Reserve Bank’s move to hold on to its key rates despite the high inflation, which resulted in the rate cut announcement by SBI and HDFCBSE 3.05 % last evening. He said the move is a positive signal for the investment climate.
SBI, the country’s largest lender, first announced a rate cut of 0.25 per cent in its home loan rates yesterday, forcing HDFC, the second biggest home loan financier, to respond.
The move came a day after the Reserve Bank of India kept its key policy rates unchanged. The short-term lending rate was kept unchanged at 7.75 per cent, while the cash reserve ratio ( CRR) remained at 4 per cent.
According to watchers, the lenders were also enjoying a reduction in provisioning for some time, which will now get passed on.
SBI home loans will now be available under two slabs — under Rs 75 lakh and above Rs 75 lakh. SBI loans of up to Rs 75 lakh would now be available to fresh borrowers at 10.15 percent as against HDFC’s 10.25 per cent.
SBI has also given an additional concession of 0.05 per cent to women borrowers, after which the borrowing rate will be 10.10 per cent for home loans of up to Rs 75 lakh.